THINK LIKE WARREN BUFFETT

Back in 1999, Robert G. Hagstrom wrote a book about the legendary investor Warren Buffett, entitled "The Warren Buffett Portfolio". What's so great about the book, and what makes it different from the countless other books and articles written about the "Oracle of Omaha" is that it offers the reader valuable insight into how Buffett actually thinks about investments. In other words, the book delves into the psychological mindset that has made Buffett so fabulously wealthy. (For more on Warren Buffett and his current holdings, check out Coattail Investor.)

Although investors could benefit from reading the entire book, we've selected a bite-sized sampling of the tips and suggestions regarding the investor mindset and ways that an investor can improve their stock selection that will help you get inside Buffett's head.

1. Think of Stocks as a Business
 

Many investors think of stocks and the stock market in general as nothing more than little pieces of paper being traded back and forth among investors, which might help prevent investors from becoming too emotional over a given position but it doesn't necessarily allow them to make the best possible investment decisions.

That's why Buffett has stated he believes stockholders should think of themselves as "part owners" of the business in which they are investing. By thinking that way, both Hagstrom and Buffett argue that investors will tend to avoid making off-the-cuff investment decisions, and become more focused on the longer term. Furthermore, longer-term "owners" also tend to analyze situations in greater detail and then put a great eal of thought into buy and sell decisions. Hagstrom says this increased thought and analysis tends to lead to improved investment returns. (To read more about Buffett's ideologies, check out Warren Buffett: How He Does It and What Is Warren Buffett's Investing Style?)

2. Increase the Size of Your Investment
 

While it rarely - if ever - makes sense for investors to "put all of their eggs in one basket," putting all your eggs in too many baskets may not be a good thing either. Buffett contends that over-diversification can hamper returns as much as a lack of diversification. That's why he doesn't invest in mutual funds. It's also why he prefers to make significant investments in just a handful of companies. (To learn more about diversification, read Introduction To Diversification, The Importance Of Diversification and The Dangers Of Over-Diversification.)

Buffett is a firm believer that an investor must first do his or her homework before investing in any security. But after that due diligence process is completed, an investor should feel comfortable enough to dedicate a sizable portion of assets to that stock. They should also feel comfortable in winnowing down their overall investment portfolio to a handful of good companies with excellent growth prospects.

Buffett's stance on taking time to properly allocate your funds is furthered with his comment that it's not just about the best company, but how you feel about the company. If the best business you own presents the least financial risk and has the most favorable long-term prospects, why would you put money into your 20th favorite business rather than add money to the top choices?

3. Reduce Portfolio Turnover
 

Rapidly trading in and out of stocks can potentially make an individual a lot of money, but according to Buffett this trader is actually hampering his or her investment returns. That's because portfolio turnover increases the amount of taxes that must be paid on capital gains and boosts the total amount of commission dollars that must be paid in a given year.

The "Oracle" contends that what makes sense in business also makes sense in stocks: An investor should ordinarily hold a small piece of an outstanding business with the same tenacity that an owner would exhibit if he owned all of that business.

Investors must think long term. By having that mindset, they can avoid paying huge commission fees and lofty short-term capital gains taxes. They'll also be more apt to ride out any short-term fluctuations in the business, and to ultimately reap the rewards of increased earnings and/or dividends over time.

4. Develop Alternative Benchmarks
 

While stock prices may be the ultimate barometer of the success or failure of a given investment choice, Buffett does not focus on this metric. Instead, he analyzes and pores over the underlying economics of a given business or group of businesses. If a company is doing what it takes to grow itself on a profitable basis, then the share price will ultimately take care of itself.

Successful investors must look at the companies they own and study their true earnings potential. If the fundamentals are solid and the company is enhancing shareholder value by generating consistent bottom-line growth, the share price, in the long term, should reflect that. (To learn how to judge fundamentals on your own, see What Are Fundamentals?)

5. Learn to Think in Probabilities
 

Bridge is a card game in which the most successful players are able to judge mathematical probabilities to beat their opponents. Perhaps not surprisingly, Buffett loves and actively plays the game, and he takes the strategies beyond the game into the investing world.

Buffett suggests that investors focus on the economics of the companies they own (in other words the underlying businesses), and then try to weigh the probability that certain events will or will not transpire, much like a Bridge player checking the probabilities of his opponents' hands. He adds that by focusing on the economic aspect of the equation and not the stock price, an investor will be more accurate in his or her ability to judge probability.

Thinking in probabilities has its advantages. For example, an investor that ponders the probability that a company will report a certain rate of earnings growth over a period of five or 10 years is much more apt to ride out short-term fluctuations in the share price. By extension, this means that his investment returns are likely to be superior and that he will also realize fewer transaction and/or capital gains costs.

6. Recognize the Psychological Aspects of Investing
 

Very simply, this means that individuals must understand that there is a psychological mindset that the successful investor tends to have. More specifically, the successful investor will focus on probabilities and economic issues and let decisions be ruled by rational, as opposed to emotional, thinking.

More than anything, investors' own emotions can be their worst enemy. Buffett contends that the key to overcoming emotions is being able to "retain your belief in the real fundamentals of the business and to not get too concerned about the stock market."

Investors should realize that there is a certain psychological mindset that they should have if they want to be successful and try to implement that mindset. (To learn more about investor behaviors, read Understanding Investor Behavior, When Fear And Greed Take Over and Master Your Trading Mindtraps.)

7. Ignore Market Forecasts
 

There is an old saying that the Dow "climbs a wall of worry". In other words, in spite of the negativity in the marketplace, and those who perpetually contend that a recession is "just around the corner", the markets have fared quite well over time. Therefore, doomsayers should be ignored.

On the other side of the coin, there are just as many eternal optimists who argue that the stock market is headed perpetually higher. These should be ignored as well.

In all this confusion, Buffett suggests that investors should focus their efforts of isolating and investing in shares that are not currently being accurately valued by the market. The logic here is that as the stock market begins to realize the company's intrinsic value (through higher prices and greater demand), the investor will stand to make a lot of money.

8. Wait for the Fat Pitch
 

Hagstrom's book uses the model of legendary baseball player Ted Williams as an example of a wise investor. Williams would wait for a specific pitch (in an area of the plate where he knew he had a high probability of making contact with the ball) before swinging. It is said that this discipline enabled Williams to have a higher lifetime batting average than the average player.

Buffett, in the same way, suggests that all investors act as if they owned a lifetime decision card with only 20 investment choice punches in it. The logic is that this should prevent them from making mediocre investment choices and hopefully, by extension, enhance the overall returns of their respective portfolios.

Bottom Line
 

"The Warren Buffett Portfolio" is a timeless book that offers valuable insight into the psychological mindset of the legendary investor Warren Buffett. Of course, if learning how to invest like Warren Buffett were as easy as reading a book, everyone would be rich! But if you take that time and effort to implement some of Buffett's proven strategies, you could be on your way to better stock selection and greater returns.

IPOs - HOW TO MAKE MONEY ?

Like all investments, IPOs are also not risk free. However you can manage the risk by carrying out due diligence and planning.

Never follow the herd mentality. Be yourself. Remember how much effort you make while making purchase decisions for your other needs. Investment in IPOs is no different.

Remember to limit your investment within Rs. 100000/- if you want to be called as retail investor. There are quotas available for retail investors and which are not available for high net worth investors. So do your calculations correctly.

Also remember that not all shares you are bidding for would be allotted to you. Share allotment is based on proportionate allotment system depending upon the number of persons who have bid for that number of shares in which category you fall. In case of good issues, you may get far less number of shares than what you have bid for.

If you believe that adequate disclosures were not made by the company, you can make a complaint to the lead manager to the issue or SEBI against the company for misleading investors.

During bull run, a number of fly by night companies tend to take investors for a ride. Beware. Remember we are in disclosure based regime and not merit based regime. This means that any company which meets the requirements can come out with a public issue provided adequate disclosures are made. So be careful about such operators.

Plan for a long term investment. Good investment for a longer period of time will give decent returns.

Not all issues coming with huge premiums are good and not all issues coming with low premiums are inexpensive. Pricing is an important factor and need to be considered carefully.

WHAT IS STOCK JOBBING ?

The buying and selling of securities with the intent of generating quick profits. While most investors seek value through long-term investments, stock jobbing takes on a more speculative short-term tone.

The term stock jobbing is largely used in reference to the South Sea Bubble - an 18th-century stock that literally wiped out the savings of many British citizens.

IPO BASICS : WHAT IS IPO ?

Selling Stock 

An initial public offering, or IPO, is the first sale of stock by a company to the public. A company can raise money by issuing either debt or equity. If the company has never issued equity to the public, it’s known as an IPO.

Companies fall into two broad categories: private and public. 

A privately held company has fewer shareholders and its owners don’t have to disclose much information about the company. Anybody can go out and incorporate a company: just put in some money, file the right legal documents and follow the reporting rules of your jurisdiction. Most small businesses are privately held. But large companies can be private too. Did you know that IKEA, Domino’s Pizza and Hallmark Cards are all privately held?

It usually isn’t possible to buy shares in a private company. You can approach the owners about investing, but they’re not obligated to sell you anything. Public companies, on the other hand, have sold at least a portion of themselves to the public and trade on a stock exchange. This is why doing an IPO is also referred to as “going public.”

Public companies have thousands of shareholders and are subject to strict rules and regulations. They must have a board of directors and they must report financial information every quarter. In the United States, public companies report to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). In other countries, public companies are overseen by governing bodies similar to the SEC. From an investor’s standpoint, the most exciting thing about a public company is that the stock is traded in the open market, like any other commodity. If you have the cash, you can invest. The CEO could hate your guts, but there’s nothing he or she could do to stop you from buying stock.

Why Go Public? 

Going public raises cash, and usually a lot of it. Being publicly traded also opens many financial doors:

Because of the increased scrutiny, public companies can usually get better rates when they issue debt. 

As long as there is market demand, a public company can always issue more stock. Thus, mergers and acquisitions are easier to do because stock can be issued as part of the deal.
Trading in the open markets means liquidity. This makes it possible to implement things like employee stock ownership plans, which help to attract top talent.

The internet boom changed all this. Firms no longer needed strong financials and a solid history to go public. Instead, IPOs were done by smaller startups seeking to expand their businesses. There’s nothing wrong with wanting to expand, but most of these firms had never made a profit and didn’t plan on being profitable any time soon. Founded on venture capital funding, they spent like Texans trying to generate enough excitement to make it to the market before burning through all their cash. In cases like this, companies might be suspected of doing an IPO just to make the founders rich. This is known as an exit strategy, implying that there’s no desire to stick around and create value for shareholders. The IPO then becomes the end of the road rather than the beginning

How can this happen? Remember: an IPO is just selling stock. It’s all about the sales job. If you can convince people to buy stock in your company, you can raise a lot of money.

WHAT IS ARBITRAGE TRADING ?

“Arbitrage” trading is simply the trading of securities when the opportunity exists during the trading day to take advantage of differences in value between the markets the trades are made within. Arbitrage trading takes place all day long on most days that the markets are active.

Arbritrage is legally allowed. In fact arbitrage is responsible for a large part of the daily volumes on the NSE & BSE exchanges.

What mainly takes place in India is called Market Arbitrage
 

Market Arbitrage involves purchasing and selling the same security at the same time in different markets (BSE & NSE) to take advantage of a price difference between the two separate markets. A market arbitrageur would short sell the higher priced stock and buy the lower priced one. The profit is the spread between the two assets.

Here is a simple example:

Suppose you own 600 shares of RPL. One trading day you notice that RPL is trading at 150 on the BSE and 145 on the NSE. You sell your 600 shares on the BSE at 150 and simultaneously buy back the 600 shares on the NSE at 145.

You profit in this case is 600*5.00 = 3000.00 less brokerages if any.

Do’s And Dont’s For INTRADAY TRADERS

If index is in minus then one should look to short stocks which are minus and not stocks which are in plus.

It is not necessary that a stock which is weak today during intraday trading might be weak tomorrow also, simultaneously if a stock is strong today might not be strong tomorrow

Being a contrarians is very important while trading intraday.

If index is in positive from yesterday and the share you are holding is in minus then it should be cut and if intraday trend of index is in buy then one should buy a stock in which is in plus.

If US Markets have gone up overnight, the markets here in all probability will open strong, so one should be quite careful when buying stocks as the general psychology of public is to buy when good news is there.

Stop loss is a must while trading intraday.

Always trade in very liquid stocks i.e. which have very high volume because as entry and exit can be very fast in such stocks.

Keep your volume constant e.g.: if you trade in five lots of nifty future then trade in five lots only. This position can be increased only when you are satisfied with your trading for a month. It should not be that one day you buy five lots and next day you trade in ten lots and third day you get a loss and stop trading for two days.

Do paper trading before you actually start trading so that when you start making paper profits, then shift to actual trading.

Fear and Greed are at maximum levels while trading intraday so always have less position when you are new to intraday trading as otherwise you will be mostly under tension.

BASICS RULES OF FUTURE TRADING

Following are some basic rules for Future Traders :

 

1.Apply money management techniques to your trading. 

2.Do not overtrade.

3.Take a position only when you know where your profit goal is and where you are going to get out if the market goes against you.

4.Trade with the trends, rather than trying to pick tops and bottoms.

5.Don’t trade many markets with little capital.

6.Don’t just trade the volatile contracts.

7.Calculate the risk/reward ratio before putting a trade on, then guard against the risk of holding it too long.

8.Establish your trading plans before the market opening to eliminate emotional reactions.

9.Decide on entry points, exit points, and objectives. Subject your decisions to only minor changes during the session. Profits are for those who act, not react. Don’t change during the session unless you have a very good reason.

10.Follow your plan. Once a position is established and stops are selected, do not get out unless the stop is reached, or the fundamental reason for taking the position changes.

11.Use technical signals (charts) to maintain discipline – the vast majority of traders are not emotionally equipped to stay disciplined without some technical tools. Use discipline to eliminate impulse trading.

12.Have a disciplined, detailed trading plan for each trade; i.e., entry, objective, exit, with no changes unless hard data changes. Disciplined money management means intelligent trading allocation and risk management. The overall objective is end-of-year bottom line, not each individual trade.

13.When you have successful a trade, fight the natural tendency to give some of it back.

14.Use a disciplined trade selection system…an organized, systematic process to eliminate impulse or emotional trading.

15.Trade with a plan – not with hope, greed, or fear. Plan where you will get in the market, plan how much you will risk on the trade, and plan where you will take your profits.

16.Cut losses short. Most importantly, cut your losses short, let your profits run. It sounds simple, but it isn’t. Let’s look at some of the reasons many traders have a hard time “cuttings losses short.” First, it’s hard for any of us to admit we’ve made a mistake. Let’s say a position starts going against you, and all your “good” reasons for putting the position on are still there. You say to yourself, “it’s only a temporary set-back. After all (you reason), the more the position goes against me, the better chance it has to come back – the odds will catch up.” Also, the reasons for entering the trade are still there. By now you’ve lost quite a bit; you sell yourself on giving it “one more day.” It’s easy to convince yourself because, by this time, you probably aren’t thinking very clearly about the position. Besides, you’ve lost so much already, what’s a little more? Panic sets in, and then comes the worst, the most devastating, the most fallacious reasoning of all, when you figure: “That contract doesn’t expire for a few more months; things; are bound to turn around in the meantime.”

“So it goes; so cut those losses short. In fact, many experienced traders say if a position still goes against you the second day in, get out. Cut those losses fast, before the losing position starts to infect you, before you “fall in love” with it. The easiest way is to inscribe across the front of your brain, “Cut my losses fast.” Use stop loss orders, aim for a Rs. 5000 per contract loss limit…or whatever works for you, but do it.

17.Let profits run. Now to the “letting profits run” side of the equation. This is even harder because who knows when those profits will stop running? Well, of course, no one does, but there are some things to consider. First of all, be aware that there is an urge in all of us to want to win…even if it’s only by a narrow margin. Most of us were raised that way. Win – even if it’s only by one touchdown, one point, or one run. Following that philosophy almost assures you of losing in the futures markets because the nature of trading futures usually means that there are more losers than winners. The winners are often big, big, big winners, not “one run” winners. Here again, you have to fight human nature. Let’s say you’ve had several losses (like most traders), and now one of your positions is developing into a pretty good winner. The temptation to close it out is universally overwhelming. You’re sick about all those losses, and here’s a chance to cash in on a pretty good winner. You don’t want it to get away. Besides, it gives you a nice warm feeling to close out a winning position and tell yourself (and maybe even your friends) how smart you were (particularly if you’re beginning to doubt yourself because of all those past losers).

18.That kind of reasoning and emotionalism have no place in futures trading; therefore, the next time you are about to close out a winning position, ask yourself why. If the cold, calculating, sound reasons you used to put on the position are still there, you should strongly consider staying. Of course, you can use trailing stops to protect your profits, but if you are exiting a winning position out of fear…don’t; out of greed…don’t; out of ego… don’t; out of impatience…don’t; out of anxiety…don’t; out of sound fundamental and/or technical reasoning…do.

“You can avoid the emotionalism, the second guessing, the wondering, the agonizing, if you have a sound trading plan (including price objectives, entry points, exit points, risk-reward ratios, stops, information about historical price levels, seasonal influences, government reports, prices of related markets, chart analysis, etc.) and follow it. Most traders don’t want to bother, they like to “wing it.” Perhaps they think a plan might take the fun out of it for them. If you’re like that and trade futures for the fun of it, fine. If you’re trying to make money without a plan – forget it. Trading a sound, smart plan is the answer to cutting your losses short and letting your profits run.

19.Do not overstay a good market. If you do, you are bound to overstay a bad one also.

20.Take your lumps. Just be sure they are little lumps. Very successful traders generally have more losing trades than winning trades. It’s just that they don’t leave any hang-ups about admitting they’re wrong, and have the ability to close out losing positions quickly.

21.Trade all positions in futures on a performance basis. The position must give a profit by the end of the second day after the position is taken, or else get out.

22.Program your mind to accept many small losses. Program your mind to “sit still” for a few large gains.

23.Learn to trade from the short side. Most people would rather own something (go long) than owe something (go short). Markets can (and should) also be traded frown the short side.

24.Watch for divergences in related markets – is one market making a new high and another not following?

25.Recognize that fear, greed, ignorance, generosity, stupidity, impatience, self-delusion, etc., can cost you a lot more money than the market(s) going against you, and that there is no fundamental method to recognize these factors.

26.Learn the basics of futures trading. It’s amazing how many people simply don’t know what they’re doing. They’re bound to lose, unless they have a strong broker to guide them and keep them out of trouble.

27.Standing aside is a position. Patience is important.

28.Client and broker must have rapport. Chemistry between account executive and client is very important; the odds of picking the right Account Executive (AE) the first time are remote. Pick a broker who will protect you from yourself…greed, ego, fear, subconscious desire to lose (actually true with some traders). Ask someone who trades if they know a good futures broker. If you find one who has room for you, give him your account.

29.Sometimes, when things aren’t going well and you’re thinking about changing brokerage firms, think about just changing AEs instead. Phone the manager of the local office, let him describe some of the other AEs in the office, and see if any of them seem right enough to have a first meeting with. Don’t worry about getting your account executive in trouble; the office certainly would rather have you switch AEs than to lose your business altogether.

30.Broker/client psychology must be in tune, or else the broker and client should part company early in the program. Client and broker should be in touch repeatedly, so when the time comes, both parties are mentally programmed to take the necessary action without delay.

31.Most people do not have the time or the experience to trade futures profitably, so choosing a broker is the most important step to profitable futures trading.

32.When you go stale, get out of the markets for a while. Trading futures is demanding, and can be draining – especially when you’re losing. Step back; get away from it all to recharge your batteries.

33.Thrill seekers usually lose. If you’re in futures simply for the thrill of gambling, you’ll probably lose because, chances are, the money does not mean as much to you as the excitement. Just knowing this about yourself may cause you to be more prudent, which could improve your trading record. Have a business-like approach to the markets.

34.Anyone who is inclined to speculate in futures should look at speculation as a business, and treat it as such. Do not regard it as a pure gamble, as so many people do. If speculation is a business, anyone in that business should learn and understand it to the best of his ability.

35.Approach the markets with a reasonable time goal. When you open an account with a broker, don’t just decide on the amount of money, decide on the length of time you should trade. This approach helps you conserve your equity, and helps avoid the Las Vegas approach of “Well, I’ll trade till my stake runs out.” Experience shows that many who have been at it over a long period of time end up making money.

36.Don’t trade on rumors. If you have, ask yourself this: “Over the long run, have I made money or lost money trading on rumors? O.K. then, stop it.

37.Don’t trade unless you’re well financed…so that market action, not financial condition, dictates your entry and exit from the market. If you don’t start with enough money, you may not be able to hang in there if the market temporarily turns against you.

38.Be more careful if you’re extra smart. Smart people very often put on a position a little too early. They see the potential for a price movement before it becomes actual. They become worn out or “tapped out,” and aren’t around when a big move finally gets under way. They were too busy trading to make money.

39.Never add to a losing position. Stay out of trouble, your first loss is your smallest loss.

40.Analyze your losses. Learn from your losses. They’re expensive lessons; you paid for them. Most traders don’t learn from their mistakes because they don’t like to think about them.

41.Survive! In futures trading, the ones who stay around long enough to be there when those “big moves” come along are often successful.

42.If you’re just getting into the markets, be a small trader for at least a year, then analyze your good trades and your bad ones. You can really learn more from your bad ones.

43.Carry a notebook with you, and jot down interesting market information. Write down the market openings, price ranges, your fills, stop orders, and your own personal observations. Re-read your notes from time to time; use them to help analyze your performance.

“Rome was not built in a day,” and no real movement of importance ends in one day. A speculator should have enough excess margin in his account to provide staying power so he can participate in big moves.

44.Take windfall profits (profits that have no sound reasons for occurring).

45.Periodically redefine the kind of capital you have in the markets. If your personal financial situation changes and the risk capital becomes necessary capital, don’t wait for “just one more day” or “one more price tick,” get out right away. If you don’t, you’ll most likely start trading with your heart instead of your head, and then you’ll surely lose.

46.Always use stop orders, always…always… always